Momentum from the Copenhagen Summit (COP15) is already starting to build and echoes of the political intrigue surrounding negotiations are making their way into the world’s media in anticipation of next week’s agreement.

Set against this backdrop, one could argue that recent events in the build-up to Copenhagen are all a clear confirmation that something substantial is brewing: Confirmation of the U.S. President and Chinese Premier’s presence at the final political meeting; moves by the EU and U.S. administrations to confirm and maybe even increase their commitments to technology transfer (albeit not without conditions); positioning by emerging economy leaders from Lula’s continued leadership to the recent Indian statements; ongoing efforts by President Obama to orchestrate a shift in attitude and positioning of the U.S.; and of course this week’s announcement by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that confirmed their willingness to regulate emissions based on the dangerous threat to public health.

As John Kerry said at this year’s UNEP conference in Paris, setting a shared ambition and baseline on emissions reduction targets is key to success and will create a process that all parties can join. Once this baseline is in place, it will build its own momentum and we will see acceleration, as we did for the CFC’s ban.

Viewed in these terms, one could argue that despite the reservations of NGO leaders, the criticism of scientists’ around the emissions target levels, and the insufficient carbon finance commitment needed to fund the required transition, the Copenhagen Summit is already a qualified success.

Why? Because it has put climate change on the map and in the mind of the top leaders of nearly 200 countries, not to mention citizens and business leaders around the world as the media storm unfolds.

So, given we may not see a binding treaty next week, what would it take to make Copenhagen a resounding success?