The International Scientific Congress on Climate Change wrapped up in Copenhagen with a sobering set of messages to be published in a
report in June. As you may have read over the last few days, more than 2,500 delegates gathered take a look at the latest climate change research, which points to climate change impacts, such as rising sea levels, occurring faster than previously forecast.
The range of sea level rise, for example, could be as high as a meter or more on the upper end, while the lower end of the range -- less then 50 cm -- appears more and more unlikely. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted in 2007 a sea rise of between 18 and 59 cm by 2100, but
calculations didn’t account for the behavior of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
Here's a glimpse of six key themes to be explored in the June report:
• Climate trends related to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, global mean surface temperature and ocean and ice sheet dynamics are at risk of accelerating and eventually causing irreversible or abrupt climatic shifts.
• Our societies, especially poorer ones, are quite vulnerable to even modest climate change effects; it will be difficult for modern societies to code with temperature rises above 2 degrees Celsius.
• Weaker reduction 2020 targets threaten the success of meeting the ambitious 2050 targets. Rapid and effective mitigation must begin now.
• There must be a well-funded safety net for countries most vulnerable but less equipped to deal with climate change effects.
• There is no excuse for doing nothing. Inaction is the costliest option. We have many of the tools we need to meet the climate challenge but they need to be scaled up, which will offer many benefits, such as clean energy job growth, ecosystem restoration, and reduction in future health and economic related to climate change.
• We must overcome several obstacles and social and economic inertia, such as educating policy makers, decoupling economic growth from emissions growth, and taking advantage of the public’s desire to address climate change, among others.
For all the grim warnings, there were also some notes of optimism at the conference:
Renewable energy could supply 40 percent of the world supply by 2050, scientists say. Without the political will and financial muscle, however, renewables will likely comprise only 15 percent of the supply or less.
"Glacier" -- CC licensed by Flickr user VinceHuang.
