Talking yesterday with negotiators, journalists and business leaders at Copenhagen as we approach the final furlong here in Copenhagen I would say the mood is mixed.
There is a lot of frustration and to some extent disappointment. Targets seem to be slipping south, ranging from developed world emissions to funding commitments; formal and informal discussions are getting fraught with talks breaking down regularly and the resignation today of the President of COP15 to focus solely on ministerial engagement; and a sense that chances of Copenhagen becoming the seminal milestone in history on climate change are slipping away.
(Add to all this the "challenging" -- to say the least -- logistics around the conference venue itself, the now-infamous Bella Center, unless of course you are a delegate that likes the "refreshing" Siberian breeze for 9 hours, which was what a fellow panelist at yesterday's International Emissions Trading conference suffered on Monday!)
I think that pessimism is too early. Although predictions are a dangerous business -- and here I'm reminded of the famous Chinese proverb that "he who predicts the future using a crystal ball often ends up eating glass" -- I think we may well see a qualified political agreement come out and some important wins in areas like deforestation through the REDD+ framework.
Why am I more optimistic? Partly because I didn't expect Copenhagen to live up to the billing it has been given in many corners. Partly because although we are probably 48 hours before the final agreement and statements, most probably in the early hours of Saturday morning, we are moving into a very different phase of COP15.
Today the "big beasts" arrive at the largest gathering of presidents, prime ministers and heads of state ever to be in one place at one time to discuss a global pathway towards a low carbon economy.
I hope and believe that this will raise the debate well above some of the technical level and I'm not sure 130 of the world's most powerful men and women will want to jet away without a deal that recognizes their leadership.
Nevertheless, if we are going to reach something that looks like success there are five remaining 'Runners and Riders' that will need to be resolved:
Nevertheless, if we are going to reach something that looks like success there are five remaining 'Runners and Riders' that will need to be resolved:
1. Targets in the North -- Developed country emissions reduction targets, particularly to 2020;
2. Targets in the South -- Defining what actions developing countries commit to take to mitigate greenhouse gases, overall and to 2020;
3. Finance -- Securing financing and capital flows to developing countries to fund both emissions reductions and adaptation to the impact of climate change;
4. Bunker Fuels -- The way countries should treat what are called 'bunker fuels' -- jet and marine fuels -- in relation to their climate targets and programs, and whether to tax aviation and shipping;
5. Forests – Finance for avoided deforestation and aforestation under the REDD+ program, particularly monitoring and verification of developing country forests
Technology transfer is embedded within some of the above, but probably isn't the sticking point that had been anticipated. While other issues like bunker fuels have become far more prominent areas for negotiation.
But as I said today to several journalists, if we can get agreement in these areas and a reasonable deal, what matters most then for governments and businesses is "execution, execution, execution."
This applies both to executing on the political deal to deliver a global treaty either in Bonn or Mexico, to executing on government commitments through five critical levers available to public officials: regulation; carbon pricing; government stimulus; public procurement and financial transfers.
For government, getting this mix right will dictate success or failure on commitments. For business leaders, understanding the impact on current and future markets will give insight into the value at stake, determine direction and start to plan for their own important journey from strategy to execution.
Until then, stay tuned as the race speeds up and the finishing line comes into sight.
Peter Lacy, based in London, is managing director, Accenture Sustainability Services -- Europe, Africa, Middle East and Latin America. He is blogging this week from the U.N. Climate Summit.
Photo CC-licensed by CIAT.