What's in store for green buildings and green business in 2010? Here are my predictions for the year's emerging trends. Readers, join in by posting your prognostications, too.
Retrofits
The mainstreaming of LEED for Existing Buildings: Operations & Maintenance (LEED-EBOM) -- which requires compliance with EPA's Energy Star program -- gives property owners a roadmap to green retrofit certification.
The ongoing uncertainty and capital constraints in the commercial real estate market ensure that attention will continue to be fixed on existing portfolios, rather than on new development. These converging influences suggest that green building retrofits will be big business in 2010.
Two new books provide green retrofit guidance: my own "Retrofitting Office Buildings to be Green and Energy-Efficient" and my friend Jerry Yudelson's "Greening Existing Buildings."
As well, I'll look forward to meeting you at green building retrofit conferences throughout 2010. The first, which I've organized around an all-star lineup, is sponsored by the Urban Land Institute and takes place January 21 in San Francisco.
I'll be sharing additional insights on green building retrofits in my next column.
Energy Efficiency
As in 2009, operating cost efficiency remains an imperative for businesses and property owners. Fuel and water savings will continue to be watched as the most closely-watched metrics on sustainable operating performance.
This will be an excellent year for energy auditors, energy benchmarking software and commissioning. This trend should be reinforced if -- as I expect -- local governments begin to follow the lead of the District of Columbia in mandating building energy benchmarking (PDF), and New York City in enacting building energy efficiency standards.
Alternative Energy
The use of the 30 percent investment tax credit for alternative energy should pick up steam during 2010, as investors begin to emerge from their foxholes.
I'm hearing that capital providers are looking for proven technologies and teams with established track records as best bets. I see the first wave of investment in alternative energy plants.
In the real estate arena, this trend is first likely to affect campuswide retrofits that incorporate combined heat and power or district energy solutions.
Localism/Regionalism
In the past month, I've received a growing stream of email urging consumers to bank with local credit unions and other community- based financial institutions.
I'm also seeing reports that community or regional brands (as opposed to national or multi-national chains) are the hottest trend in retailing -- to the point that we're already being warned against corporate "localwashing."
Increasing interest in community-based economic activity and the financing of regionally or locally-produced products augurs well for a next generation of smaller-scale green ventures focused on neighborhood, local or regional markets.
Adam Smith, the intellectual father of modern capitalism, whose “Invisible Hand” relied on an economy dominated by small producers, might approve.
Greener Agriculture and Cityscapes
Localism/regionalism, when applied to the food chain, translates into increasing interest in sustainable and organic agriculture, urban agriculture and additional greening of the urban landscape.
Look for green buildings to get even greener as 2010 progresses, with new attention focused on vertical plantings, living roofs and rooftop gardens and farms.
Urban farming, sustainable and organic agriculture, and permaculture (the design of self-sustaining, agriculturally-based communities) are drawing increasing interest in the context of land use planning.
Recent initiatives to promote the production and consumption of locally- and regionally-grown foodstuffs include the New York City Food Charter and the program of the Northeast Sustainable Agriculture Working Group, says Debra Italiano, managing principal of Merintra Co. LLC and my collaborator on agricultural issues.
Christine Ervin, the first president and CEO of the U.S. Green Building Council, a GreenBiz.com contributor and now the head of Christine Ervin Company, is also taking a keen interest in sustainable agriculture. In light of Christine's track record as an early adapter, we couldn't have much clearer evidence that interest in sustainable agriculture is about to skyrocket.
Leanne Tobias is founder and managing principal of Malachite LLC, an advisory firm that specializes in the development, leasing, management, financing and certification of sustainable or green real estate on a global basis. Write to Leanne about your thoughts on trends for 2010 or ways to jumpstart the economy at greenstimulus@malachitellc.com. She'll share the best ideas in future posts.
Retrofit on a school rooftop, photo by Pamm McFadden, image courtesy of NREL