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How the building industry can build on COP21

Barrels of ink were spilled leading up to the Paris COP21 climate conference last December, and more barrels since analyzing its results. Many observers are celebratory; some proclaim failure for lack of aggressive targets with enforcement provisions.

Several features of COP21, however, clearly laid a promising foundation for action:

  • First, the universal agreement to keep temperatures no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels sent a clear market signal that the era of fossil fuels is closing.
  • Second, negotiators opted for a pragmatic bottom-up approach to solicit national commitments (in tandem with regular updates and transparent reporting) rather than fail, once again, to get unanimous consent on top-down mandates.
  • Third, business leaders were engaged as never before — showing up, making their own commitments and calling for action.
  • Finally, conveners organized the first Buildings Day to put a spotlight on the crucial role of the building sector.

In short, Paris was a great start. Now we need unprecedented focus on strategies designed for speed, scale and synergy to ensure that COP21, in fact, becomes a turning point in our efforts to re-stabilize the climate. Why? Because greenhouse gas concentrations do not decline under current commitments until 2030. That prolonged glide path increases costs of both mitigation and adaptation and poses higher risks than peaking years earlier.

Herein lies the unique role of the building industry. We know, for example, that when life-cycle energy use is added up throughout the built environment, this industry is the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. We also know that two-thirds of the buildings that will exist by 2030 have not yet been built — most in developing economies. Since the most cost-effective way to dramatically cut emissions is during design of new construction and major renovation, the global green building market can have a huge impact by aggressively draining carbon out of every building cycle. That includes designing new buildings for long, flexible life spans to more permanently capture embodied energy.

But isn’t the green building market already one of the most vibrant markets today? Certainly. The 2016 World Green Building Trends survey reports that green building markets are continuing to double every three years. While expansion is continuing in developed economies, emerging economies are now experiencing four to seven-fold increases. Moreover, the percentage of industry firms expecting at least 60 percent of their projects to be certified green by 2018 has leapt from 18 percent to 37 percent.

On the other hand, all trends must be viewed in the context of net impacts. Most environmental and social challenges are accelerating, scaling up and becoming increasingly interconnected with other challenges. In that relative context, even vibrant green markets are hardly symmetrical with those trends.

Today, green buildings — let alone net-zero-energy buildings — are still dwarfed by the stock of low-performing new and existing buildings.

Without relevant speed and scale, the green building market remains an exciting niche rather than becoming a force wholly capable of moving the climate needle in a meaningful way. And because green buildings inherently address many other materials and resources beyond energy, this market is also capable of triggering faster progress in other supply chain industries.

Post-Paris calls for three strategies that offer the most leverage for speed, scale and synergy.

1. Boost Leadership Goals. Leaders stepping beyond mainstream practices have always been the “secret sauce” in green building markets around the world. Now that we face unprecedented resource limits and climate change threats, rewards for innovation can inspire even more aggressive stretch goals. As Albert Einstein observed: “Once we recognize limits, we can move beyond them.”

Strategic collaborations between public and private leaders are especially potent. When government raises the bar, it not only unleashes large-scale purchasing power but also incentivizes (or mandates) actions from mainstream players who are content with the status quo. When the private sector sets a high bar, it not only supplies real-world ground truthing but also lends credence for government leadership.

Think of the juggernaut that could be unleashed if market prices and information signals systematically rewarded carbon-neutral, high-performance, resilient buildings and communities!

2. Unleash Market Forces. Green building markets thrive because they embody a broad value proposition that cuts across economic, environmental and social motivations. As Roger Platt, president of the U.S. Green Building Council, rightly observes, “What is it about 2 million square feet of daily green building certification that isn’t a market signal?”

But think of the juggernaut that could be unleashed if market prices and information signals systematically rewarded carbon-neutral, high-performance, resilient buildings and communities! Such signals would flow through tax codes, permitting processes, investor disclosures, stock exchanges and myriad other instruments. They would also reduce the need for many government programs striving to encourage sustainable practices in the face of contrary market signals.

Unleashing market forces starts with removing subsidies on fossil fuels. Direct subsidies for 2015 amounted to about $500 billion — twice the level for renewable energy. Now, add a price on carbon which would, in effect, start accounting for the $5.3 trillion in environmental and health costs associated with fossil fuel use in 2015.

The impact could be enormous. The International Monetary Fund estimates that reforming fossil fuel subsidies would cut CO2 emissions by 20 percent, generate $2.9 trillion in government revenues and cut premature deaths by more than half.

Its been said that nothing chills investment more than uncertainty. The corollary is that nothing accelerates and scales investment faster than predictable and complete market signals.

A strong business case has documented the effect daylighting, natural ventilation, attractive views and healthy air have on productivity, absenteeism, employee recruitment and retention.

3. Harness Public Enthusiasm. If there’s another “secret sauce” driving green buildings, it’s their impact on occupants. A strong business case has accumulated over the years documenting the effect daylighting, natural ventilation, attractive views and healthy air have on such measures as occupant productivity, absenteeism, employee recruitment and retention. A breakthrough study last year targeted elevated indoor CO2 levels as having a direct and negative affect on human cognition and decision-making. No wonder the human element is receiving more attention today in markets around the world.

Extend this emphasis to whole neighborhoods and new urban centers and public support for greening the built environment will likely flourish. That’s important because the building industry is best able to translate the abstraction of sustainability and resiliency into tangible prototypes that make a real difference in daily lives. That’s something for people to get enthusiastic about.

Bold leadership, unleashing market forces and harnessing public enthusiasm, individually, are not likely to generate the speed, scale and synergy we need in greening the built environment. But together, they reinforce each other for exponential impact.

The exuberant green building market already is a huge success story. If it ramps up global progress it can also play a leading role in re-stabilizing our climate.

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